Ensuring Public Transport Is Back In BUS-iness - Orla Lenehan

Introduction to Orla

Orla is a Transport Planner at Transport for Wales with a particular interest in all things sustainable transport! Orla has 4 years professional experience as a transport planner in both the public and private sector and achieved a distinction in MSc Transport and Planning from Cardiff University.

Orla is the Wales Rep for the Transport Planning Society and was one of the finalists in the Transport Planning Society Bursary Competition 2022 with her paper: “Ensuring Public Transport is Back in BUS-iness”

Context behind my research

Since March 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has undoubtedly affected travel patterns and public transport ridership. The Department for Transport (DfT) have collected data on transport mode use since the beginning of the pandemic. Buses (excluding London) observed circa 14% fewer passengers during July 2023 than pre-pandemic levels and, whilst patronage levels appear to be nearing their pre-pandemic levels, the growth in passenger numbers is still lower than optimal, particularly when private car usage has returned to approximately 100% of pre-pandemic levels in July 2023.

Several factors could be attributed to this continued reduction in the level of ridership of buses. The increased number of people that continue to work remotely has potentially played a part. ONS data from March 2022 showed that of all working adults in Great Britain, 57% did not work from home and exclusively travelled to work, with 12% working from home exclusively[1]. This is compared to 5% of workers in Great Britain stating they work from home in the 2011 census.

The Pandemic is Not Wholly to Blame

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, ridership on buses was steadily declining, particularly in Wales. The graph below shows the trend in bus travel in the countries of Great Britain since 1998/99. The trend in Wales has seen a sharper decline than the other countries in Great Britain, with bus journeys less common in Wales than across Great Britain[2].

 Time for Change

Bus ridership can only increase when physical and mental barriers to accessing the buses are removed, and perceptions of the mode are altered. Transport produced 27% of the UK’s total emissions in 2019 and, of this, the majority (91%) came from road transport vehicles. The biggest contributors to this were cars and taxis, which made up 61% of the emissions from road transport[3].

Llwybr Newydd – The Wales Transport Strategy, sets the ambitious mode share target of 45% of journeys to be made by sustainable modes by 2040. This represents a 13% increase on the estimated current mode share of 32%[4].  

Research

My research paper therefore aimed to ascertain if travel patterns have changed as a result of Covid-19, the defining factors that have contributed to any change and the measures that bus providers and local authorities could implement that would increase an individual’s use of bus to travel in the future.  Based on these factors, my study suggested measures for decision makers to improve the rider experience and increase patronage in the future, to meet mode share targets.

To investigate this, primary and secondary sources were utilised to provide qualitative and quantitative data. Primary data collection techniques included a large-scale survey of residents of South East Wales, as well as the findings from semi-structured interviews with key transport and equality group representatives. Secondary data sources included data on Demand Responsive Transport in Wales, Welsh Government data and research undertaken by University of South Wales regarding the impact of Covid-19 on Welsh Bus Services.

A total of 648 valid responses were received from across the region between October and November 2022. Two semi – structured interviews were conducted to supplement the surveys; one with a representative of Transport for Wales and the other with a group of adults with learning difficulties based in Rhondda Cynon Taf.

The majority of participants in this research study stated that they use the bus about the same now as they did prior to March 2020. Of the 28% of respondents that use the bus less, reasons for this mode shift included “no longer need to commute due to being able to work from home”, “don’t think the bus is as safe as before Covid-19”, “service frequency in my area has decreased”, and “the number of buses has been reduced”.

Of those that use the bus less, approximately 30% of respondents have shifted to the active travel modes of walking and cycling, with 7% of respondents now using the train instead. Whilst this shift to other sustainable modes is positive, the majority of respondents (51%) have shifted to using the car instead of the bus. This shift to car is not optimal in regards to mode shift and net zero targets.

Factors Influencing Bus Travel

The factors that had the largest impact in increasing the use of buses were more direct services, more frequent services, better integration between bus services and better integration between modes.

Interestingly, cheaper fares was not one of the defining factors, with 30% stating it would have no impact. This is despite a stark increase in bus fares over the last decade compared to other modes:

Recommendations

Whilst this project focussed on the South East Wales region, the results are indicative of wider trends across the UK. This research study therefore makes the following recommendations for national policy makers, both in Wales and the UK, local decision makers and service providers:

Orla Lenehan    

Transport for Wales

Orla Lenehan | LinkedIn

References:

[1] Office for National Statistics (2022), Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 1 April 2022

[2] Welsh Government (2021): Public Service Vehicles (Buses and Taxis) April 2019 to March 2020

[3] Department for Transport (2021), Transport and Environment Statistics: Autumn 2021

[4] Welsh Government (2021), Llwybr Newydd – The Wales Transport Strategy 2021