A report by the University of Leeds for Friends of the Earth (FoE) has applied the term ‘silent war’ to bus users in the face of drastic reductions in the number of bus services available. The figures are alarming: outside London, 80 local authority areas have experienced declines of 60%.
Having investigated timetables across England and Wales since 2008, FoE found that services had reduced by 48% in urban areas and 52% in rural areas with some areas seeing a decline of over 80%. Of 100 constituencies with the greatest decline, 82 are held by a Conservative MP. In response to this alarming picture, FoE has called for a ‘public transport renaissance’ to reinstate bus services that have been lost.
However, all this simplifies a complex situation. The decline in bus services is partly attributable to declining numbers of users in many places: if there are no buses, you use a car more but if you have a car, you are less likely to use buses. While Covid-19 decimated demand, many areas are aspiring to return to pre-pandemic levels of demand but they usually fall significantly short of the levels of use of a few years before. Government’s sentiment – improving bus services will make them more attractive and therefore more people will use them – is somewhat binary because it addresses only part of the multi-function equation of bus demand.
Improving bus services is a good thing to do, obvious to those who use them and provide them but sadly many people simply don’t see it at all. Government has committed some decent sums of money to support bus services in troubled times so will want to see a return on its investment. The £2 fare cap initiative appears to have helped to some extent but there is a great deal more that needs to be done if there is to be a shift towards bus use i.e. away from car use. It could be argued that now is not the best time for a fare cap given that not all services are as good as they should be because of driver shortages and other problems notably traffic congestion. A bad or even indifferent user experience now could simply entrench opinion in favour of not using buses. However, the hope is that anyone tempted to try the bus might actually discover that it may be preferable to car use.
Expecting people to give bus services a go isn’t going to make a lot of difference while their option of car use exists. It all boils down to the inconvenient truth that car use is currently higher than ever, fuelled by pandemic messaging that demonised public transport use. Bus services will never have an advantage over car use unless initiatives are taken to influence the sources of demand for travel accompanied by measures that make car use less attractive. Attracting car users to buses will only be achieved through a combination of better bus services but with significantly more emphasis on priority for buses and some restrictions on car use in the form of fiscal and/or physical measures. Until decision-makers appreciate this, the current problems will perpetuate.
Interwoven with this is the financial position facing bus operators. Costs continue to increase with the result that the free market simply doesn’t function anymore because costs can easily exceed revenue. Leaving services to cover their costs is a bleak prospect and despite the difficulties created by service withdrawals, the decline will continue unless the funding position changes; there is no immediate solution to the silent war but now is the time to devise ways to deal with it.
Nick Richardson, Technical Director WSP